So tomorrow is the big day. Stasburg hits The Show and the entire nation waits to see what happens next. Apparently the mania has also hit the Million Card giveaway, as apparently after Strasburg's first pitch is thrown, a photo of that pitch will become Strasburg's official first rookie card and will become redeemable immediately following the pitch. I have to say that I am a bit skeptical about what exactly is going to be released....or more specifically how many. This sounds like a blatant attempt to force people to A) quickly buy more product B) quickly buy more code cards, C) quickly redeem those bad boys to make sure that as many of these are used up as possible....well I am biting and I will burn my seven that I have stockpiled... though I have some serious doubts as to exactly how many of these Topps is going to make available. Guess there is only one way to find out.
I want to pop on the ol' swami hat and make a couple predictions about what will come to be from Strasburg. For you investment folks, I am willing to bet that you will see a growing return on the card for about the next year. Where do I pull that out of? Well, the way I see it, Strasburg is going to show up tonight with some seriously wicked stuff that nobody has ever seen before. Actually, practically ANY pitcher that Veterans have never seen is going to have the upper-edge initially in gameplay. It takes time for hitters to figure a pitcher out, unless he stinks, which Strasburg certainly does not.
So you have to figure that he will dominate teams on his virgin run, then come fall he may start to see some teams again, and they may start to have a bit more success, but then the season will end, everybody will hit the reset button, and then in the spring he will come in again and proceed to baffle guys left and right...but wait until about June or July when teams have scouting reports, video tape, and some at-bats against him and things should start to level out a bit. Look at Timmy Jim and his recent struggles. So enjoy the ride now but get out before the bubble bursts next summer.
My other prediction? I suspect that this Stasburg rookie card start is an attempt to stimulate card redemptions. My strong suspicion is that collectors are starting to wise up about WHEN to redeem and are waiting to see some vintage wax before they try to redeem. As a result, Topps is most likely sitting on a pile of junk wax that they are desperate to push...and I betcha they do it tonight. So go ahead and redeem those codes after first pitch tonight, but be prepared for some mass-produced flimsy to go with it!
The swami has spoken.